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The technology that underlies both computers and communications is continuously evolving. You may have heard of Moore's law, named after the founder of Intel. More than 25 years ago Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors that could be economically placed on a silicon chip would continuously increase at the rate of times two every 18 months, or times four every three years. This has in fact been happening and it is this exponential improvement in the underlying technology that has driven the growth of computers and information technology over the past 40 years. Less well known is that a similar evolution has been happening in communications capacity for over 15 years now. Whether you measure it as the number of bits we can put through a single optical fiber, or the number of mobile telephone callers we can accommodate with a fixed amount radio spectrum, the important thing is that communications capacity is now following the same exponential growth curve as computer memories and computer processor performance. Even more exciting is the fact that when experts argue about when this growth might tail off, they're arguing about whether it will be 20 or 30 years from now! - not in the next few weeks.
Everyone has been affected by the growth in computer capacity. For the first time, in 1996, there were more computers sold than televisions! And now, with the advent of the Internet, there is strong reason to believe that we'll see an acceleration in the development of new applications for that technology. More people with access to technology means more new ideas. Ever improving information technology combined with similar trends in communications promise to impact all human endeavors, certainly including our ability to collaborate. Think about collaborative tools used on construction projects. Obviously we've all used US Mail, Federal Express, telephones and Fax. Increasingly, project teams are getting connected to the Internet and experimenting with e-mail. We've also seen experiments with electronic delivery of drawings and other documents. Initially this took the form of experiments with electronic bulletin boards and now with widening Internet connectivity, FTP sites or private Web sites.
Let's look at some emerging collaborative tools that could be applied in construction, when team members are connected via the Internet. Under the name "groupware", we find several useful technologies. The first is discussion forums. These provide the ability for multiple people to interact with each other without actually getting together. Where e-mail is one-to-one and web sites are one to many, a discussion forum lets multiple people contribute e-mail like messages and displays their resulting comments in a organized form for all authorized users to see. A discussion forum provides many-to-many communication. Discussion groups are supported in several products including Lotus Notes and Netscape's CollabraShare. Next is "workflow". Workflow software provides a way to automate routine business processes. Up until now, it has only been applicable within a single corporation, but increasingly, workflow can be applied within any group that is networked - on the Internet for example. Workflow software is available from Lotus (Notes) and Action Technologies and others. As an example, in the construction process, we could use workflow software to automate the "request for information" (RFI) process. As a workflow process, the RFI could be an electronic document that included drawings, red-line mark-ups, photographs and so on. The workflow could be set up to automatically route the electronic document to the next relevant party and to provide visibility as to where the RFI currently is (and who is responsible for the next step!). Workflow can handle automatic routing, provide digital signatures and provide tracking, reporting and accountability.
What's next. It doesn't stop here. As the technology keeps getting improving, new applications will be come practical. Already firms are working on mixed voice and video communications with shared whiteboards over local area networks and over the Internet. Recently Intel, Microsoft, Netscape and Cisco, among others, have agreed on standards for such conferences. We can expect the PC that is sold in 1999 to come equipped for voice and video conferencing over the Internet.
So, will anyone use all this? Let's look back at some earlier technologies and how they were adopted. Everyone uses Fax today, but Fax had a long gestation period. For many years in the 1970s and early 80s, Fax was slow, expensive, complex to use and not particularly inter-operable between fax machines. Finally, with improving electronics and the "Group 3" fax standards, Fax broke the one thousand dollar mark, became easy to use and worked with anyone else's fax machine. Once this happened, adoption was extremely rapid. In New England construction circles, Fax adoption went from near zero to nearly 100% within one year.
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